Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment: A Case Study in Babol

Abstract

The risk of earthquake ground motion parameters in seismic design of structures and Vulnerabilityand risk assessment of these structures against earthquake damage are important. The damages caused by theearthquake engineering and seismology of the social and economic consequences are assessed. This paperdetermined seismic hazard analysis in Babol via deterministic and probabilistic methods. Deterministic andprobabilistic methods seem to be practical tools for mutual control of results and to overcome the weaknessof approach alone. In the deterministic approach, the strong-motion parameters are estimated for the maximumcredible earthquake, assumed to occur at the closest possible distance from the site of interest, withoutconsidering the likelihood of its occurrence during a specified exposure period. On the other hand, theprobabilistic approach integrates the effects of all earthquakes expected to occur at different locations duringa specified life period, with the associated uncertainties and randomness taken into account. The calculatedbedrock horizontal and vertical peak ground acceleration (PGA) for different years return period of the studyarea are presented.

Keywords

• Active fault
• Seismic hazard assessment
• Return period
• Babol