Zhongguo gonggong weisheng (Apr 2024)
Change trends and prediction of the burden of cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019
Abstract
ObjectiveTo analyze the change in the disease burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of CVD and CRD from 2020 to 2030, so as to provide a reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of CVD and CRD in China. MethodsFrom the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) study, we collected relevant data on the burden of CVD and CRD among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019. Descriptive analysis was performed using the following indicators: incident cases (in million), incidence rate (1/100 000), standardized incidence rate (1/100 000), number of deaths (in million), mortality rate (1/100 000), standardized mortality rate (1/100 000), DALY (person-years), DALY rate (1/100 000), and standardized DALY rate (1/100 000). The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changes in the disease burden of CVD and CRD among Chinese residents during the period, and the gray prediction model was used to predict the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of CVD and CRD among Chinese residents from 2020 to 2030. ResultsComparison between 1990 and 2019 showed an increase in the number of CVD incident cases (5.3007 vs. 12.3411), incidence rate (447.81 vs. 867.65), standardized incidence rate (646.20 vs. 652.21), number of deaths (2.4240 vs. 4.5843), mortality rate (204. 78 vs. 322.30), DALYs (6026.16 × 104 vs. 9193.31 × 104), and DALY rate (5 091.03 vs. 6463.47) among Chinese residents, with overall percentage changes of 132.82%, 93.75%, 0.93%, 89.12%, 57.39%, 52.56%, and 26.96%, respectively, but the decreases in CVD standardized mortality rate (381.21 vs. 276.94) and standardized DALY rate (7 412.81 vs. 4 938.38), with overall percentage changes of – 27.35% and – 33.38%, respectively. The number of CRD incident cases and the incidence rate increased from 8.5808 and 724.92 in 1990 to 11.9075 and 837.17 in 2019, with the overall percentage changes of 38.77% and 15.48%; while there were decreases in standardized incidence rate (863.43 vs. 767.50), number of deaths (1.3010 vs. 1.0853), mortality rate (109.93 vs. 76.30), standardized mortality rate (226.43 vs. 67.98), DALYs (2 899.21 × 104 vs. 2 252.05 × 104), DALY rate (2 449.31 vs. 1 583.33), and standardized DALY rate (3 910.13 vs. 1 269.95) of CRD during the period, with the total percentage changes of – 11.11%, – 16.58%, – 30.59%, – 69.98%, – 22.32%, – 35.36%, and – 67.52%, respectively. The Joinpoint regression model showed an increasing trend in the overall standardized incidence rate of CVD among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 0.03%, P < 0.05), while the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of CVD and the standardized incidence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALY rate of CRD all showed a decreasing trend (all P < 0.05). The predicted CVD incidence rate of Chinese residents in 2020 – 2030 is 886.94 – 1 151.61, the predicted mortality rate is 329.00 – 392.92, and the predicted DALY rate is 6 525.22 – 7 260.53. The predicted CVD incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate in 2020 – 2030 continue to increase (all P = 1.00); the predicted CRD incidence rate of Chinese residents in 2020 – 2030 will be 824.71 – 971.00, the predicted mortality rate will be 55.68 – 68.42, and the predicted DALY rate will be 1 145.20 – 1 420.31. The predicted CRD incidence rate will continue to increase, the predicted mortality rate and the predicted DALY rate will continue to decrease (P = 0.85, 1.00 and 1.00).ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2019, the standardized CVD incidence rate of Chinese residents showed an overall increasing trend, while the standardized CVD mortality rate, standardized DALY rate, and CRD standardized incidence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALY rate showed an overall decreasing trend; from 2020 to 2030, the predicted CVD incidence rate, mortality rate, DALY rate, and predicted CRD incidence rate all continued to increase, while the predicted CRD mortality rate and DALY rate both continued to decrease.
Keywords
