Optimised extreme gradient boosting model for short term electric load demand forecasting of regional grid system

Abstract

Abstract Load forecast provides effective and reliable guidance for power construction and grid operation. It is essential for the power utility to forecast the exact in-future coming energy demand. Advanced machine learning methods can support competently for load forecasting, and extreme gradient boosting is an algorithm with great research potential. But there is less research about the energy time series itself as only an internal variable, especially for feature engineering of time univariate. And the machine learning tuning is another issue to applicate boosting method in energy demand, which has more significant effects than improving the core of the model. We take the extreme gradient boosting algorithm as the original model and combine the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator method to design the TPE-XGBoost model for completing the high-performance single-lag power load forecasting task. We resample the power load data of the Île-de-France Region Grid provided by Réseau de Transport d’Électricité in the day, train and optimise the TPE-XGBoost model by samples from 2016 to 2018, and test and evaluate in samples of 2019. The optimal window width of the time series data is determined in this study through Discrete Fourier Transform and Pearson Correlation Coefficient Methods, and five additional date features are introduced to complete feature engineering. By 500 iterations, TPE optimisation ensures nine hyperparameters’ values of XGBoost and improves the models obviously. In the dataset of 2019, the TPE-XGBoost model we designed has an excellent performance of MAE = 166.020 and MAPE = 2.61%. Compared with the original model, the two metrics are respectively improved by 14.23 and 14.14%; compared with the other eight machine learning algorithms, the model performs with the best metrics as well.