Enhancing predictions with a stacking ensemble model for ICU mortality risk in patients with sepsis-associated encephalopathy

Abstract

Objective We identified predictive factors and developed a novel machine learning (ML) model for predicting mortality risk in patients with sepsis-associated encephalopathy (SAE). Methods In this retrospective cohort study, data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and eICU Collaborative Research Database were used for model development and external validation. The primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality rate among patients with SAE; the observed in-hospital mortality rate was 14.74% (MIMIC IV: 1112, eICU: 594). Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), we built nine ML models and a stacking ensemble model and determined the optimal model based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We used the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm to determine the optimal model. Results The study included 9943 patients. LASSO identified 15 variables. The stacking ensemble model achieved the highest AUC on the test set (0.807) and 0.671 on external validation. SHAP analysis highlighted Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and age as key variables. The model ( https://sic1.shinyapps.io/SSAAEE/ ) can predict in-hospital mortality risk for patients with SAE. Conclusions We developed a stacked ensemble model with enhanced generalization capabilities using novel data to predict mortality risk in patients with SAE.