THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAR OWNERSHIP AND SHARE OF TRIPS ON PASSENGER CARS IN CITIES

Abstract

In order to plan and predict the development of urban transport systems, it is necessary to understand the relationships between car ownership and car usage indicators for various options of urban transport policy. The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between car ownership and share of trips on passenger cars within the framework of the conventional approach to transport systems development and the approach based on the concept of sustainable development. Materials and methods. The methods of regression analysis were used to build the dependencies between car ownership and share of trips on passenger cars in cities. The dependencies were built on the basis of synthesis the urban mobility studies results in some cities of Russia, Eastern and Western Europe over the past fifty years. Results. The share of trips on passenger cars increases with the increase of car ownership. The dependence is well described by the logistic curve. The approach based on the concept of sustainable development is associated with a targeted reduction in the share of trips on passenger cars. The analysis shows that car ownership decreases with a decrease in the share of trips on passenger cars, but such decrease occurs with a delay. There is a hysteresis phenomenon. Practical implications. The results of the study help to better understand the changes in the travel behavior associated with car ownership and using a car, depending on the transport policy being pursued.

Keywords

• уровень автомобилизации
• транспортный спрос
• способ передвижения
• использование автомобилей
• устойчивое развитие
• подвижность населения
• гистерезис