Full-Disk Solar Flare Forecasting Model Based on Data Mining Method

Abstract

Solar flare is one of the violent solar eruptive phenomena; many solar flare forecasting models are built based on the properties of active regions. However, most of these models only focus on active regions within 30° of solar disk center because of the projection effect. Using cost sensitive decision tree algorithm, we build two solar flare forecasting models from the active regions within 30° of solar disk center and outside 30° of solar disk center, respectively. The performances of these two models are compared and analyzed. Merging these two models into a single one, we obtain a full-disk solar flare forecasting model.