State of the art in total pulse production in major states of India using ARIMA techniques

Abstract

Pulses are staple protein-rich food for Indian vegetarians, and India is one of the largest producers in the world. The present investigation is an attempt to study the trend in the production of total pulses in India using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. For stochastic trend estimation, yearly data were used for the period from 1961 to 2019. On the basis of the performance of several goodness of model fit criteria, the most suitable ARIMA model is chosen to capture the trend of pulse production. Forecasting for the 10 years from 2020 to 2029 is done, and it is observed that India has the highest forecast value (31.03302 million tonnes) in 2029. This study will play an important role in determining the gap between production of and demand for pulses in the future.

Keywords

• Autoregressive integrated moving average
• Autocorrelation function
• Forecasting
• Modeling
• Production