High‐Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I Improves Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Older Men: HIMS (The Health in Men Study)

Abstract

Background The Framingham Risk Score estimates the 10‐year risk of cardiovascular events. However, it performs poorly in older adults. We evaluated the incremental benefit of adding high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs‐cTnI) to the Framingham Risk Score. Methods and Results The HIMS (Health in Men Study) is a cohort study of community‐dwelling men aged 70 to 89 years in Western Australia. Participants were identified from the electoral roll, with a subset undergoing plasma analysis. Hs‐cTnI (Abbott Architect i2000SR) was measured in 1151 men without prior cardiovascular disease. The Western Australia Data Linkage System was used to identify incident cardiovascular events. After 10 years of follow‐up, 252 men (22%) had a cardiovascular event (CVE+) and 899 did not (CVE–). The Framingham Risk Score placed 148 (59%) CVE+ and 415 (46%) CVE– in the high‐risk category. In CVE– men, adding hs‐cTnI affected the risk categories of 244 (27.2%) men, with 64.8% appropriately reclassified to a lower and 35.2% to a higher category, which decreased the number of high‐risk men in the CVE– to 39%. In CVE+ men, adding hs‐cTnI affected the risk categories of 61 (24.2%), with 50.8% appropriately reclassified to a higher and 49.2% to a lower category and 82.5% remaining above the 15% risk treatment threshold. The net reclassification index was 0.305 (P<0.001). Adding hs‐cTnI increased the C‐statistic modestly from 0.588 (95% CI, 0.552–0.624) to 0.624 (95% CI, 0.589–0.659) and improved model fit (likelihood ratio test, P<0.001). Conclusions Adding hs‐cTnI to the Framingham Risk Score provided incremental prognostic benefit in older men, especially aiding reclassification of individuals into a lower risk category.

Keywords

• aging
• cardiovascular disease
• cardiovascular disease prevention
• cardiovascular disease risk factors
• risk prediction
• risk stratification