Mathematical Modelling in Crop Production to Predict Crop Yields

Abstract

In this study, for remote recognition of crops of agroecosystems in Kazakhstan by methods of comparative and historical analogy with the active use of mathematical modelling, the yield indicator of agricultural crops was determined, their dynamic characteristics were studied to predict productivity. The parameters of the dynamic-statistical biomass model were determined separately for each region of the Republic of Kazakhstan based on training data for 21 y (2000 – 2021). The correlation coefficient between the calculated yield values and the official statistics is 0.84. According to the results of cross-validation, the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted yield of spring wheat was ~ 0.70, which indicates a sufficient resistance of the model to the variability of meteorological conditions for the formation of the crop.