Војно дело (Jan 2022)
Non-military aspects of strategic deterrence
Abstract
Nowadays state and its citizens are exposed to a wide range of threats that are not necessarily of a military character, which requires a systemic and strategic response. The main hypothesis of the paper is that the very change in the perception of security, as well as the increasingly diverse manners of endangering it, which are also reflected in the theories of modern wars, impose on state the obligation to expand the concept of strategic deterrence to other spheres of social activities, in addition to the military, which still remains crucially important. In order to better understand the concept of strategic deterrence, the authors try to provide answers to the questions: who should be deterred and what from? In addition to armed aggression, which strategic deterrence is primarily aimed at, the paper indicates that the focus has to also be on all other phenomena and activities that lead to the destabilisation of society, the collapse of institutions, some form of intrastate conflict and, ultimately, the collapse of state and/or violent regime change. Having in mind that deterrence is, in essence, a matter of perception, a special part of the paper is devoted to the analysis of the situation in Serbia, that is, the perception of its internal weaknesses that affect the ability of strategic deterrence. For the purpose of this analysis, in the paper the authors use some databases and reports by international organizations, which make it possible to do a comparative analysis with other countries and monitor its trends. Theoretical assumptions and analysed data are used as a basis for answering the question: how to deter? For strategic deterrence to be effective, first of all it must not be partial and has to encompass all domains of national power. In this sense, it is pointed out that military power is important, but not sufficient. Moreover, in the context of strategic deterrence, the importance of strengthening the international position of state through cooperation with others, as well as attracting foreign investment, is emphasized. Finally, as a key condition for the credibility of strategic deterrence, the authors emphasize political stability and the functioning of institutions. Bearing in mind the expansion of the context of strategic deterrence, important institutions in this regard are, in addition to the military, police, intelligence and security services, certainly also the judiciary, financial institutions, educational and health system, cultural and information institutions, etc. For a country that has not managed to ensure the minimum of unity within its society for strategic decisions, or at least the absence of extreme polarisation, as well as the proper functioning of the state apparatus and other segments of society, there are not armed forces that could defend it. Such a state will not be externally attacked by potential enemies, but internally. Precisely due to this, the authors conclude that without a comprehensive and systemic approach, without strong and efficient institutions, without establishing a functional and democratic society, there is no successful deterrence.
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