Comparing observed and modelled components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N

Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) allows the assessment of the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in climate models. While CMIP Phase 6 models display a large spread in AMOC strength, the multi-model mean strength agrees reasonably well with observed estimates from RAPID1, but this does not hold for the AMOC's various components. In CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6), the present-day AMOC is characterized by a lack of lower North Atlantic Deep Water (lNADW) due to the small scale of Greenland–Iceland–Scotland Ridge overflow and too much mixing. This is compensated for by increased recirculation in the subtropical gyre and more Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Deep-water circulation is dominated by a distinct deep western boundary current (DWBC) with minor interior recirculation compared with observations. The future decline in the AMOC of 7 Sv by 2100 under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) emission scenario is associated with decreased northward western boundary current transport in combination with reduced southward flow of upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW). In CMIP6, wind stress curl decreases with time by 14 % so that wind-driven thermocline recirculation in the subtropical gyre is reduced by 4 Sv (17 %) by 2100. The reduction in western boundary current transport of 11 Sv is more than the decrease in wind-driven gyre transport, indicating a decrease over time in the component of the Gulf Stream originating from the South Atlantic.