Modeling monkeypox virus transmission: Stability analysis and comparison of analytical techniques

Abstract

Monkeypox is a highly infectious disease and spreads very easily, hence posing several health concerns or risks as it may lead to outbreak. This article proposes a new mathematical model to simulate the transmission rate of the monkeypox virus-infected fractional-order differential equations using the Caputo–Fabrizio derivative. The existence, uniqueness, and stability under contraction mapping of the fixed point of the model are discussed using Krasnoselskii’s and Banach’s fixed point theorems. To verify the model proposed, we employ data that record the actual dynamics, and based on these data, the model can capture the observed transmission patterns in Ghana. Also, the analytic algorithm is used to find the result applying the Laplace Adomian decomposition method (LADM). Performance analysis of LADM is made regarding Runge-Kutta fourth order, which is the most commonly employed method for solving second-order ordinary differential equations. This comparison therefore offers information on the truth and reliability of the two techniques toward modeling the transmission pattern of the monkey pox virus. The information obtained through this study provides a better understanding of the antibodies linked to monkeypox virus spreading and provides effective strategies to doctors and politicians. This article helps shape better strategies about combating the impact of monkeypox virus in public health since it makes it easy to predict and prevent the occurrence of the disease.

Keywords

• monkeypox virus
• stability analysis
• caputo–fabrizio derivative
• krasnoselskii’s and banach’s fixed point