ANALYSIS OF FACTORS FOR FORMATION OF THE CHUMYSH RIVER MAXIMUM RUNOFF (WESTERN SIBERIA)

Abstract

Link for citation: Samoilova S.Yu., Lovtskaya O.V., Kudishin A.V., Arnaut D.V. Analysis of factors for formation of the Chumysh river maximum runoff (Western Siberia). Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 5, рр.116-128. In Rus. The relevance of the study stems from the necessity to refine the methods of medium-term flood forecasts when sufficient hydrometeorological data are not available. The purpose of the work is to assess probable application of spatially distributed precipitation models to forecast runoff volume of flood, to develop stochastic models for predicting flood volume and its maximum discharge using hydrometeorological observation data, distributed precipitation datasets from reanalysis and remote sensing data of high spatial and temporal resolution. Methods include geoinformation, complex geographical and hydrometeorological analysis, statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis). Results. The Chumysh basin moistening was estimated due to the data from spatially distributed precipitation models and hydrometeorological observation data; the relationship of total precipitation with runoff volume and maximum flood discharge was analyzed. A comparative evaluation of the obtained dependencies made it possible to identify key predictors for deriving the multiple linear regression equation. The statistical model was developed for predicting volumes and maximum discharges of Chumysh flood at Talmenka settlement using hydrometeorological observation data and reanalysis ones of high spatial and temporal resolution.

Keywords

• The Chumysh River
• winter precipitation
• flood
• runoff depth
• maximum discharge
• statistical model of multiple regression