Environment International (Mar 2025)
Sociodemographic and geographic inequalities in exposure to projected hot and extreme summer days in England: A nationwide socio-spatial analysis
Abstract
Introduction: Climate change is a global health emergency, with extreme heat events increasing morbidity, mortality, and hospitalisations, and exacerbating health and social inequalities. Global temperatures have risen by over 1.1 °C since pre-industrial times and could reach 2.5 °C or even 4.0 °C based on current policies.This study examined how projected climate change will vary geographically and by population sub-group in England, to assess whether these changes will affect existing health inequalities. Methods: We used small-area baseline (2001 to 2020) and climate projection data from the UK’s Met Office, linking it to area-level sociodemographic (2019) and health data (2016/17 to 2020/21), including age, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, hospital admissions, and mortality. Summated numbers of hot and extreme summer days were plotted by area-level health and sociodemographic quintiles. Models assessed the association between area-level quintiles and the projected number of hot (>30 °C) and extreme (>35 °C) summer days under 2.5 °C and 4.0 °C global heating scenarios. Results: There were clear geographical variations in experiencing hot and extreme summer days, with the South of England seeing the highest increases. The pattern of projected temperature increases does not align with typical health inequalities, as less deprived areas will experience more hot and extreme summer days, while areas with larger ethnic minority populations will face a greater number. Conclusion: Climate adaptation strategies are needed to two levels: (1) locally to support vulnerable population groups in coping with global heating; and (2) national and global strategies to prevent global temperatures from exceeding 2.5 °C or reaching 4.0 °C, given the severe population-level health risks such increases would entail.
