Bìznes Inform (Dec 2022)
The Current Global Economic Tendencies
Abstract
Today, the world is trying to maintain a global tendency in the development of a sustainable economy, responding to various threats, risks and challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic; political instability; wars; the formation of multipolarity of the world; spread of processes of technologization and digitalization, energy imbalances; demographic and environmental problems, etc. The purpose of the article is to study global tendencies in the development of the world economy, the influence of destabilizing factors, the selection of megatrends, which are caused by the formation of a post-industrial mode of production. It is specified that economic megatrends are formed as result of technological revolutions and changes in the mode of production. According to the content of these transformations, the current stage of society’s life represents the beginning of the development of post-industrial relations. This type of technical, economic and socioeconomic relations determines the long-term vectors of economic development, which are based on basic innovations – digital technologies, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, etc. It is stated that big trends, or megatrends, are manifestations of long-term vector changes. However, in the current periods of their objectification, megatrends are influenced by many factors – there is an adjustment of the current dynamics within the framework of the general determining trend of economic development. It is emphasized that the most significant in our time is the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to the weakening of international economic ties and the rupture of supply chains. This was followed almost immediately by the russian military invasion of Ukraine, the consequences of which affect the social (including economic) life not only of European countries, but also of the world in general. The cumulative and repeatedly enhanced due to their simultaneity, the negative impact of these factors significantly adjusts the parameters of global economic trends – temporal, structural and others – at present. It is found that in 2022 there is a decrease in the global economic growth rate to 2.9% compared to the growth rate in 2021 by 5.7%, and, according to the forecast, during 2023-2024 there will be no compensation. In such a situation, inflation will remain high, which could lead to a sharp global recession along with financial crises in some market-based and emerging economies. It is determined that the dynamics of GDP of the pre-pandemic and pre-war period highlighted the outstripping growth rate of the economy in developing countries, compared with the dynamics of GDP of developed countries. The carried out studies have shown that a larger share of world GDP is created in developed countries, and by 2032 the contribution by groups of countries (developed / developing) will not become equal, although it will gravitate towards this parity. The prognosticated paces of global economic growth by region in 2023–2024 are examined. The significant negative impact on the world economy of russia’s invasion of Ukraine in general and in certain regions in particular is emphasized. It is concluded that the harshest consequences of the war would be for Europe and Central Asia. A slowdown in growth this year is forecast in all regions other than the Middle East and North Africa – that is, in those regions where countries can benefit from energy prices. For all regions with a market and a developing economy, the following risks occur: increased geopolitical tensions; rising inflation and food shortages; financial stress and increasing the cost of loans; new outbreaks of COVID-19, etc. It is noted that the need to reduce the negative impact of these risks led to the search by society for such directions of development that would become an impetus for economic growth and restore market activity. In the period of formation of the post-industrial technological mode of production, nano-, bio-, info-, cognitive technologies became decisive. The carried out research provides grounds to assert that the six economies named by the UN (exabyte, welfare, carbon-neutral, closed cycle, biogrowth, impressions) are megatrends, since such transformations are the result of the formation of a post-industrial mode of production – a special type of relations: technical and economic (productive forces) and socioeconomic (production relations).
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