Relationship between Visibility, Air Pollution Index and Annual Mortality Rate in Association with the Occurrence of Rainfall—A Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

An innovative method was proposed to facilitate the analyses of meteorological conditions and selected air pollution indices’ influence on visibility, air quality index and mortality. The constructed calculation algorithm is dedicated to simulating the visibility in a single episode, first of all. It was derived after applying logistic regression methodology. It should be stressed that eight visibility thresholds (Vis) were adopted in order to build proper classification models with a number of relevant advantages. At first, there exists the possibility to analyze the impact of independent variables on visibility with the consideration of its’ real variability. Secondly, through the application of the Monte Carlo method and the assumed classification algorithms, it was made possible to model the number of days during a precipitation and no-precipitation periods in a yearly cycle, on which the visibility ranged practically: Vis 32 km. The derived algorithm proved a particular role of precipitation and no-precipitation periods in shaping the air visibility phenomena. Higher visibility values and a lower number of days with increased visibility were found for the precipitation period contrary to no-precipitation one. The air quality index was lower for precipitation days, and moreover, strong, non-linear relationships were found between mortality and visibility, considering precipitation and seasonality effects.

Keywords

• visibility
• ambient air pollution
• air pollution index
• rainfall
• annual mortality
• human health