Large Ensemble Simulation for Investigating Predictability of Precursor Vortices of Typhoon Faxai in 2019 With a 14‐km Mesh Global Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model

Abstract

Abstract Typhoon Faxai hit Japan in 2019 and severely damaged the Tokyo metropolitan area. To mitigate such damages, a good track forecast is necessary even before the typhoon formation. To investigate the predictability of the genesis and movement of a precursor vortex and its relationship with the synoptic‐scale flow, 100‐member ensemble simulations of Typhoon Faxai were performed using a 14‐km mesh global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model, which started from 16 different initial days (i.e., 1,600 members in total). The results show that the model could predict an enhanced risk of a Faxai‐like vortex heading toward Japan 2 weeks before landfall, which was up to 70%. The reason for the enhancement was a rapid increase in the members reproducing a precursor vortex from 15 to 12 days before landfall in Japan. In addition, the upper‐tropospheric vortex played an essential role in the track simulation of Faxai.

Keywords

• high‐resolution
• large ensemble
• global nonhydrostatic model
• tropical cyclone track forecast
• precursor vortex
• upper‐tropospheric trough