Energy Reports (Nov 2023)
Creating pathways toward secure and climate neutral energy system through EnergyPLAN scenario model: The case of Slovak Republic
Abstract
The Slovakia’s national primary energy system relies on external energy imports. The key contributors to electricity generation within the country are hydro, nuclear, and natural gas. Notably, nuclear fuel and natural gas sourced from Russia play a significant role in the production of electricity. The country prioritizes a focus on renewable energy sector, however, a national energy policy still has uncertainties regarding strategies, preferences, and targets for specific renewable energy technologies, either wind, solar, or biomass. Therefore, to reach secure and climate neutral energy system requires scenario-based quantitative and qualitative analysis of current and future national energy systems and their technical, environmental, and economic consequences. This paper aims to demonstrate how reducing or increasing solar, wind power, and biomass (the most promising renewables) in the Slovak Republic’s 2030, 2040 and 2050 energy scenarios impact on energy supply, environmental progress or regress, and total economic cost. This paper uses the input and output software engineering model with data distribution entitled EnergyPLAN for the electricity sector to explore and compare the impact of different 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 energy scenarios. The result demonstrates that in 2020 primary energy and electricity consumption of the Slovak Republic was 177.1 and 28.6 terawatt-hour per year, respectively; carbon emission from the energy sector was 34.80 million tons; and the total annual energy cost was 20.12 million euro. However, future scenarios demonstrate a continued electricity demand increase to 40.84 terawatt-hour by 2050. Therefore, it is expected to include additional renewable capacities from wind, solar, and biomass with total capacitates 3.6, 1.8, and 3.0 gigawatt by 2050, respectively. Such an energy profile scenario reduces a total primary energy consumption to 58 terawatt-hour by 2050, a carbon emission to 16.28 million tons, and a total annual energy cost to 9.80 million euro. The result and data of the model presented in this paper are for further use to design suitable low-carbon strategies for providing secure and climate neutral energy system.
