MODIFICATION OF THE COBWEB MODEL INTO GENERALIZED LOGISTIC EQUATION FOR THE WHEAT PRICE ANALYSIS

Abstract

In the paper we constructed the new wheat growth model, based on the generalized logistic equation. Starting from the theoretical framework of the cobweb model, we adapted generalized logistic equation to better fit the real data of wheat prices, according to the presented wheat growth model. The aim of the paper is to present how logistic and generalized logistic equations can be used for both prediction of wheat prices and for the wheat price stability analysis. Data analysis showed better performances of the generalized logistic map in comparation with the conventional logistic map as a main result of this paper. For estimated parameters of the model the bifurcation diagrams also have been presented to show stability of wheat price over time. The conclusion is that the proposed model can be useful in predicting future wheat prices in the short-run period, as well as for the analysis of stability in conditions of uncertainty, which is also a recommendation for the application of the model in the future research.

Keywords

• cobweb theorem
• wheat price
• growth model
• generalized logistic equation