Correlation Analysis between Land-Use/Cover Change and Coastal Subsidence in the Yellow River Delta, China: Reviewing the Past and Prospecting the Future

Abstract

In recent years, noticeable subsidence depressions have occurred along the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta. Consistent with these changes, dramatic human modifications within the coastal zone stand out, and the coastline is altered from an undisturbed natural area to an artificial coastline. However, very few studies have attempted to quantitatively analyze the relationship between subsidence depression and human activities. Here, the subsidence characteristics of the different land-use types in the Yellow River Delta are examined, and their spatiotemporal trends are quantified using a long-term satellite-observed time series of 30 years (1984–2017) regarding the land use map in combination with the InSAR-derived vertical ground deformations during three typical periods (P1: 1992–2000, P2: 2007–2010, and P3: 2016–2017). Noticeably, the highest subsidence rates were observed in areas where substantial human activities were observed, such as the subsidence in the salt fields ranging from 13 mm/year to 32 mm/year to 453 mm/year, respectively. Moreover, through the land-use prediction of Land Change Modeler (LCM), it is found that the salt field area will be further expanded in the future. The ecological vulnerability of the Yellow River Delta coastal zone should receive more attention in the future in terms of planning environmental protection strategies.

Keywords

• land-use/cover change
• coastal subsidence
• underground brine exploitation
• Sentinel-1A
• Landsat
• GIS