Forecasting of Red Chilli Prices in Banyumas Regency: The ARIMA Approach

Abstract

Chilli is one of the national strategic commodities in Indonesia. The price of chilli tends to fluctuate every season which may contribute to inflation. In June 2022, chilli price contributed to the food group inflation as 0.24%. At the same period, in Banyumas it contributed as 0.20%. This study aimed: 1) to analyse the performance of red chilli price in Banyumas, 2) to analyse the forecasting of red chilli prices in Banyumas. This study used a descriptive method for assessing performance of red chilli price and method for forecasting of red chilli prices using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The secondary data of the average price of chilli used in the study was obtained from PIHPS. There were 69 data from April 2017 until December 2020. The red chilli prices in Banyumas Regency shows an upward trend in a fluctuating during April 2017 to December 2022. ARIMA 1.11 has been estimated as the most suitable model for predicting prices. The result showed that the price of chilli in Banyumas during January-December 2023 was predicted as 39.703 to 42.815 rupiahs per kilo, and it tends to increase every season.