Modeling of domestic air passenger demand in The Papua Islands

Abstract

Indonesia is an archipelagic country with diverse regions. Among them are several regions that are difficult to reach by land or sea transportation, such as Papua and West Papua in the Papua Islands. In the context of national transportation, such regions are referred to as regions with geographical constraints. This study aimed to predict both generation and attraction of air passengers in The Papua Islands. The study indicated that out of the fourteen independent variables as candidate predictors, only two significantly influenced generation and attraction: population and per capita GRDP. Over the next five years, it is predicted that generation and attraction will grow by 11.94% and 9.35% in Papua; and by 81.95% and 70.85% in West Papua. Over the next ten years, generation and attraction are predicted to grow by 26.03% and 29.14% in Papua; and by 94.79% and 96.26% in West Papua.

Keywords

• papua islands
• domestic air passengers
• demand modeling
• generation
• attraction