Numerical Weather Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in South China Sea Using Attention-Based Context Fusion Network

Abstract

Numerical weather prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) is crucial for regional operational forecasts. Deep learning offers an alternative approach to traditional numerical general circulation models for numerical weather prediction. In our previous work, we developed a sophisticated deep learning model known as the Attention-based Context Fusion Network (ACFN). This model integrates an attention mechanism with a convolutional neural network framework. In this study, we applied the ACFN model to the South China Sea to evaluate its performance in predicting SST. The results indicate that for a 1-day lead time, the ACFN model achieves a Mean Absolute Error of 0.215 °C and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.972. In addition, in situ buoy data were utilized to validate the forecast results. The Mean Absolute Error for forecasts using these data increased to 0.500 °C for a 1-day lead time, with a corresponding R2 of 0.590. Comparative analyses show that the ACFN model surpasses traditional models such as ConvLSTM and PredRNN in terms of accuracy and reliability.

Keywords

• numerical weather prediction
• sea surface temperature
• South China Sea
• attention-based context fusion network
• deep learning