Phase-shifting of the transmissibility of macrolide-sensitive and resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae epidemics in Hong Kong, from 2015 to 2018

Abstract

Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a threat to public health. This pathogen caused an epidemic in Hong Kong during the years 2015–2018. The reproduction number during the initial epidemic was estimated to be 1.7 for macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae (MRMP) and 1.4 for macrolide-sensitive M. pneumoniae (MSMP). During 2016–2018, the reproduction number remained stable at around 1.0 for both MRMP and MSMP. Phase-shifting and changes in the leading-status between the transmissibilities of MSMP and MRMP were found. Keywords: Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Antibiotic resistance, Reproduction number, Statistical analysis, Wavelet analysis