Nauka ta progres transportu (Dec 2015)
Methodology for determining the value of complexity parameter for emergency situation during driving of the train
Abstract
Purpose. During development of intelligent control systems for locomotive there is a need in the evaluation of the current train situation in the terms of traffic safety. In order to estimate the probability of the development of various emergency situations in to the traffic accidents, it is necessary to determine their complexity. The purpose of this paper is to develop the methodology for determining the complexity of emergency situations during the locomotive operation. Methodology. To achieve this purpose the statistical material of traffic safety violations was accumulated. The causes of violations are divided into groups: technical factors, human factors and external influences. Using the theory of hybrid networks it was obtained a model that gives the output complexity parameter of the emergency situation. Network type: multilayer perceptron with hybrid neurons of the first layer and the sigmoid activation function. The methods of the probability theory were used for the analysis of the results. Findings. The approach to the formalization of manufacturing situations that can only be described linguistically was developed, that allowed to use them as input data to the model for emergency situation. It was established and proved that the exponent of complexity for emergency situation during driving the train is a random quantity and obeys to the normal distribution law. It was obtained the graph of the cumulative distribution function, which identified the areas for safe operation and an increased risk of accident. Originality. It was proposed theoretical basis for determining the complexity of emergency situations in the train work and received the maximum complexity value of emergency situations that can be admitted in the operating conditions. Practical value. Constant monitoring of this value allows not only respond to the threat of danger, but also getting it in numerical form and use it as one of the input parameters for the locomotive intelligent control system. The decision on further control actions will be based on it.
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