Narušení toků přímých zahraničních investic v důsledku krize covid-19 a management obnovy ekonomiky

Abstract

The paper describes the responses of national economics to the spread of pandemic COVID-19 in year 2020. As a result of economic and social interconnectedness and dependency of countries, the actions are mutually influential in a great extend. The economic impacts are analysed from macroeconomic perspective, demonstrating the effects on important economic indicators. Due to the crucial role of investment, the paper focuses on disruptions of foreign direct investment flows and consequent changes, especially in the European Union. Based on analysis of data from UNCTAD, OECD, Czech Statistical Office and Czech National Bank, the aim is to provide prognosis of future development of foreign direct investment in case of Czech economy. Three scenarios are constructed with forecasting 15%, 37% and 60% drop in foreign direct investment inflow. The paper highlights the significant relevance of investment incentives in attracting the investors and investment promotion agencies in general in terms of avoiding divestment. The main factor that determines the final fluctuation of the variable (the state of foreign direct investment in individual years) is the health situation and the related restrictions on business activities. The presented results lead to a discussion of recommendations for economic policy concerning the support of business activities.

Keywords

• business fluctuation
• covid-19
• forecasting
• foreign direct investment
• global economic crises