Сибирский лесной журнал (Dec 2021)
Climatically caused territorial changes in the phytomass of forest-forming tree species of Eurasia and their forecasting
Abstract
Forest ecosystems play an essential role in climate stabilization, and the study of their capabilities in this aspect is of paramount importance. On the other hand, the current climatic shifts cause changes in their biological productivity, which, in turn, affects the biosphere function of forests. The study of the relationship between the biomass of trees and stands and hydrothermal indicators, in particular temperature and precipitation, is carried out mainly at the local or regional levels, often for indicators that are depersonalized by age, morphostructure of the forest, and also without taking into account the species composition. How climate changes affect the biomass of trees in transcontinental gradients is unknown today. The objective of this study was (a) to verify the operation of the law of the limiting factor at the transcontinental level when modeling changes in the biomass of trees of forest-forming species of Eurasia in relation to geographically determined indicators of temperatures and precipitation, and (b) to test the possibility of using the constructed climate-conditioned models of tree biomass in predicting temporal changes in tree biomass based on the principle of space-for-time substitution. As a result of the implementation of the principles of the limiting factor and space-for-time substitution, a common pattern has been established for the main tree species (genera): in sufficiently moisture-rich climatic zones, an increase in temperature by 1 °C with a constant amount of precipitation causes an increase in aboveground biomass, and in non-deficient zones – its decrease; in warm climatic zones, a decrease in precipitation by 100 mm at a constant average temperature in January causes a decrease in aboveground biomass, and in cold climatic zones - its increase.
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