Modeling the balanced development of the region in the transition to renewable energy and maintaining the carbon cycle in land use

Abstract

The article provides the author’s model for assessing the level of sustainability in the development of a region due to an increase in the share of alternative energy sources and on the premise of maintaining a carbon balance. It was taken into account that the possibility of maintaining the carbon balance in the region is greatly influenced by agricultural activities and landscape features of the region. Thus, in some regions it is necessary to allocate additional areas of ecosystems with a special nature management regime to maintain the carbon cycle. The model generated was tested on the example of the regions of the Ural Federal District of the Russian Federation. It has been established that carbon dioxide emission from anthropogenically disturbed territories is present in four regions of the district: Sverdlovsk (17.9 million tons), Chelyabinsk (45.04 million tons), Kurgan (40.9 million tons) and Tyumen (13.03 million tons) regions. Thus, even if the share of renewable energy in the energy balance increases to 37-93%, and the general balance is achieved, the carbon cycle is still disrupted. In order to preserve it, additional inclusion of up to 8.5-57.4% of the region territories into the special nature management regime is required.