Decision trees in environmental justice research — a case study on the floods of 2001 and 2010 in Hungary

Abstract

Environmental justice is a normative framework for the analysis of environmental impacts on the wellbeing of individuals and social groups. According to the framework, the deprived social groups and ethnic minorities are often more exposed to environmental risks and hazards due to their disadvantaged situation, and due to the lack of representation and political power. To manage the impacts of injustices and to include the citizen in the decision-making processes, proper information is needed on local attitudes and decision-making processes. Therefore, this study sought to (i) identify the main factors shaping the attitudes towards environmental injustices and (ii) to analyse the attitudes and perception of the various social groups and (iii) to identify the main factors which are shaping the attitudes and actions of those who were affected by the floods of 2001 and 2010 through the use of decision tree method. The data for the predictive model was acquired from a questionnaire survey conducted in two disadvantaged and flood-hit Hungarian regions. Based on the survey data, a principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted, which resulted in three principal components; fear, social change, and change in the built environment. The study focused only on the elements of the “fear principal component”, due to the decision tree tool homogenous groups identified in relation to this component. Our analysis showed that ethnicity has a determinative role in the emergence and the level of fear from floods; the Roma respondents expressed a significantly higher level of fear than others.

Keywords

• decision tree
• predictive modeling
• environmental injustice
• natural disasters