The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5

Abstract

Earth system model experiments presented here explore how the centennial response in the Southern Ocean can drive ongoing global warming even with zero CO2 emissions and declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These projections were simulated by the earth system model version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1.5) and motivated by the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP); ACCESS-ESM1.5 simulated ongoing warming in the ZECMIP experiment that switched or branched to zero emissions after 2000 PgC had been emitted. New experiments presented here each simulated 300 years and included intermediate branch points. In each experiment that branched after emitting more than 1000 PgC, the global climate continues to warm. For the experiment that branched after 2000 PgC, or after 3.5 °C of warming from a preindustrial climate, there is 0.37 ± 0.08 °C of extra warming after 50 years of zero emissions, which increases to 0.83 ± 0.08 °C after 200 years. All branches show ongoing Southern Ocean warming. The circulation of the Southern Ocean is modified early in the warming climate, which contributes to changes in the distribution of both physical and biogeochemical subsurface ocean tracers, such as ongoing warming at intermediate depths and a reduction in deep oxygen south of 60° S. A simple slab model emulates the global temperatures of the ACCESS-ESM1.5 experiments demonstrating the response here is primarily due to the slow response of the ocean and the Southern Ocean in particular. Centennial global warming persists when the slab model is forced with CO2 diagnosed from late-branching experiments with other ZECMIP models, confirming the dominant role of ocean physics at these timescales. However, decadal responses changed due to the larger drawdown of CO2 from other models. Slow ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean can be found in ZEC scenarios of most models, though the amplitude and global influence varies.