An econometric analysis for food security in Tunisia

Abstract

Food security issue is getting more attention in middle-income countries such as Tunisia after the revolution 2011, where many factors affecting its food security are multiplied. An econometric analysis of food security was done through the Vector Error Correction Model approach (VECM). The result of this approach shows that there is a significant long-term causality between the dependent variables and the explanatory variables. Some signs of variables like land under cereals assert the hypothesis of Ricardo’s land rent theory and also attract attention for the preservation of land fertility in climate change context. However, there is a short-term causal relationship between food security and independents variables like: land under cereals, inflation and food imports. These results confirm that the issue of food security in Tunisia is a question of threat in the short and long-term instability. So, it is important today to readjust some factors to ensure food security in Tunisia like controlling inflation and lowering the food importation as short-term measures and preserving and improving the fertility of land under cereals and adopting climate change as long-term measures.