The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn mainland China, a geographic northward expansion of scrub typhus has been seen, highlighting the need to understand the factors and identify the risk for disease prevention. Incidence data from 1980 to 2013 were used. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify drivers for spatial spread, and a boosted regression tree (BRT) model was constructed to predict potential risk areas. Since the 1980s, an invasive expansion from South Natural Foci towards North Natural Foci was clearly identified, with the epidemiological heterogeneity observed between two regions, mainly in spatial distribution, seasonality, and demographic characteristics. Survival analysis disclosed significant factors contributing to the spatial expansion as following: being intersected by freeway (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.11–1.54), coverage percentage of broadleaf forest (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06–1.15), and monthly average temperature (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.25–1.30). The BRT models showed that precipitation, sunshine hour, temperature, crop field, and relative humidity contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of scrub typhus. A county-scale risk map was created to predict the regions with high probability of the disease. The current study enabled a comprehensive overview of epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in mainland China.

Keywords

• Scrub typhus
• epidemiological feature
• heterogeneity
• spatiotemporal expansion
• risk factors