Volatility in the Housing Market: Evidence on Risk and Return in theLondon Sub-market

Abstract

The impact of volatility in housing market analysis is reconsidered via examinaton ofthe risk-return relationship in the London housing market is examined. In addition to providing thefirst empirical results for the relationship between risk (as measured by volatility) and returns forthis submarket, the analysis offers a more general message to empiricists via a detailed and explicitevaluation of the impact of empirical design decisions upon inferences. In particular, the negativerisk-return relationship discussed frequently in the housing market literature is examined and shown todepend upon typically overlooked decisions concerning components of the empirical framework fromwhich statistical inferences are drawn.

Keywords

• regional housing markets
• risk analysis
• volatility
• rolling samples