Mathematical modeling of pneumococcal transmission dynamics in response to PCV13 infant vaccination in Germany predicts increasing IPD burden due to serotypes included in next-generation PCVs

Abstract

Introduction Two next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), a 15- and a 20-valent PCV (PCV15 and PCV20), have recently been licensed for use in adults, and PCV15 has also been licensed in children. We developed a dynamic transmission model specific for Germany, with the aim to predict carriage prevalence and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) burden for serotypes included in these vaccines. Methods The model allows to follow serotype distributions longitudinally both in the absence and presence of PCV vaccinations. We considered eight age cohorts and seven serotype groups according to the composition of different pneumococcal vaccines. This comprises the additional serotypes contained in PCV15 and PCV20 but not in PCV13. Results The model predicted that by continuing the current vaccine policy (standard vaccination with PCV13 in children and with PPSV23 in adults) until 2031, IPD case counts due to any serotype in children Conclusions We conclude that introduction of next-generation PCVs for adults may prevent a substantial and increasing proportion of adult IPDs, with PCV20 having the potential to provide the broadest protection against pneumococcal disease.