Forecasting the Stock Market with Linguistic Rules Generated from the Minimize Entropy Principle and the Cumulative Probability Distribution Approaches

Abstract

To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs) and genetic algorithms (GAs) have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1) the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2) the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach) and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR) in forecast accuracy.

Keywords

• minimize entropy principle approach
• cumulative probability distribution approach
• rough set theory
• stock market forecasting