Modeling of budgetary funding influence on socio-demographic processes of a region

Abstract

This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection) are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.

Keywords

• socio-demographic processes
• region
• socially significant budgetary items
• influence modeling