The impact of earthquakes in Latin America on the continuity of HIV care: A retrospective observational cohort study

Abstract

Objectives: As earthquakes occur frequently in Latin America and can cause significant disruptions in HIV care, we sought to analyze patterns of HIV care for adults at Latin American clinical sites experiencing a significant earthquake within the past two decades. Study design: Retrospective clinical cohort study. Methods: Adults receiving HIV care at sites experiencing at least a “moderate intensity” (Modified Mercalli scale) earthquake in the Caribbean, Central and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet) contributed data from 2003 to 2017. Interrupted Time Series models were fit with discontinuities at site-specific earthquake dates (Sept. 16, 2015 in Chile; Apr. 18, 2014 and Sept. 19, 2017 in Mexico; and Aug. 15, 2007 in Peru) to assess clinical visit, CD4 measure, viral load lab, and ART initiation rates 3- and 6-months after versus before earthquakes. Results: Comparing post-to pre-earthquake periods, there was a sharp drop in median visit (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68–0.91) and viral load lab (IRR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62–0.99) rates per week, using a 3-month window. CD4 measurement rates also decreased (IRR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.37–0.51), though only using a 6-month window. Conclusions: Given that earthquakes occur frequently in Latin America, disaster preparedness plans must be more broadly implemented to avoid disruptions in HIV care and attendant poor outcomes.

Keywords

• AIDS
• Earthquake
• GIS
• HIV
• Natural disaster
• Spatial analysis