Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in the CMIP6-HighResMIP models constrained by observations

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.