A standardized methodology for the validation of air quality forecast applications (F-MQO): lessons learnt from its application across Europe

Abstract

A standardized methodology for the validation of short-term air quality forecast applications was developed in the framework of the Forum for Air quality Modeling (FAIRMODE) activities. The proposed approach, focusing on specific features to be checked when evaluating a forecasting application, investigates the model's capability to detect sudden changes in pollutant concentration levels, predict threshold exceedances and reproduce air quality indices. The proposed formulation relies on the definition of specific forecast modelling quality objectives and performance criteria, defining the minimum level of quality to be achieved by a forecasting application when it is used for policy purposes. The persistence model, which uses the most recent observed value as the predicted value, is used as a benchmark for the forecast evaluation. The validation protocol has been applied to several forecasting applications across Europe, using different modelling paradigms and covering a range of geographical contexts and spatial scales. The method is successful, with room for improvement, in highlighting shortcomings and strengths of forecasting applications. This provides a useful basis for using short-term air quality forecasts as a supporting tool for providing correct information to citizens and regulators.