OPTIMALIZACE PŘEDPOVĚDNÍCH MODELŮ VÝVOJE CHOROB A ŠKŮDCŮ NA ZÁKLADĚ ROZDÍLNÝCH TEPLOTNÍCH POMĚRŮ VE VÝSADBĚ ŠTÍHLÝCH VŘETEN JABLONÍ [OPTIMIZATION OF PREDICTIVE MODELS OF DISEASE AND PEST DEVELOPMENT BASED ON DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE PLANTING OF SLENDER SPINDLES OF APPLE TREES]

Abstract

Forecasting models for predicting the development of diseases and pests are based on the measurement of meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation, duration of leaf wetness etc. Predictions of the development of individual developmental stages of pests and suitable conditions for pathogen infections are then modelled from these values. Cultivation systems for growing apple trees have changed significantly in recent years. New plantings are in a high density, apple plantings are covered with anti-hail nets. All these changes have an effect on the microclimate of the plantings and thus also on the development of pests and pathogens. In majority, the air temperature measured at the nearest meteorological station at a height of 2 m above the surface enters in models as a variable. However, it cannot be assumed that even modelled insect pests occur exactly at this height. The aim of this study was to assess how the detected temperature differences and their daily course in individual planting height levels will be reflected in the resulting values of temperature sums, which are most often used for modelling the development of insect pests in orchards. It was found, that for hourly average temperatures above the 5 °C threshold, the differences ranged within ± one day for almost the entire growing season from April to early September. At a height of 3 m, the temperature totals were slightly higher throughout. The specific amount was therefore reached approximately one day earlier, while at 0.5 m it was lower, so this value was reached less than a day later. For other models based on sums of daily degrees +5 °C or sums of daily and hourly degrees +10 °C, the differences were 2–3 days.

Keywords

• meteorological data
• sums of temperature
• plant protection
• malus domestica
• growing systems