Testing the accuracy of biological attributes in predicting extinction risk

Abstract

The assessment of species conservation status traditionally relies on population data. In the absence of such data, biological attributes have been applied to predict the degree of species’ vulnerability. Our study investigated the accuracy of biological attributes to predict species’ vulnerability to extinction by contrasting matches and mismatches between threat predictions and the conservation status of reef fish species in the Brazilian Red List of Threatened Species. We further analyzed the patterns of distribution of threatened species under different attribute categories. The proportion of matches were higher for Elasmobranchii (92%), habitat specialists (88%) and highly mobile species (81%). Also, other attributes as macrocarnivorous and mobile invertivore-based diets, habitat intermediate-generalists, and large body size had over 70% of match in predictions. Fifty-six Brazilian reef fish species share these attributes but are not listed as threatened, which makes them even more vulnerable to future extinctions. Higher proportions of threatened species presenting these biological attributes were found in southeast Brazil (states of Espírito Santo and São Paulo). Our study has revealed that biological attributes may serve as an alternative tool to predict reef fish species vulnerability.

Keywords

• Threatened species
• Traits
• Body size
• Macrocarnivores
• Brazilian reefs