Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal (Sep 2024)
Development of earthquake early warning algorithm magnitude scale for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake region
Abstract
On 6 February 2023, Türkiye suffered two major earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw = 7.7 and Mw = 7.6 at 04:17 and 13:24 local time in Pazarcık and Elbistan districts of Kahramanmaraş, which were called as the disaster of the century. On 20 February 2023 at 20:04 local time, another major earthquake with Mw = 6.4 occurred in Yayladağı, Hatay. This disaster caused great loss of life and heavy destruction. The burden of the earthquake on the Turkish economy is extremely heavy. The purpose of earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) is to protect people and property, save time for precautions to be taken and prepare emergency response teams. An effective EEWS has a major role in reducing life, structural and economic losses. This study is an implementation of the original California optimized EPIC, an early warning algorithm, in the region of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. A total of 212 earthquakes in the region are replayed to derive magnitude scaling equations based on peak displacement amplitude (Pd) and predominant period (Tpmax). The performance of the modified equations is tested for three large earthquakes. By comparing the magnitudes estimated by Pd and Tpmax, it is observed that Pd gives more suitable results. The 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquakes real-time tests suggested a warning time of 32 s for the first earthquake in Antakya (Hatay), where the heaviest destruction and loss of life was observed. In the other earthquakes, the warning times were interpreted as quite useful to minimize the loss of life. The geography of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes is a seismically active region and will be subject to earthquakes in the future. As a result of this study, a region-specific scaling of the magnitude, which is the most important parameter if an early warning system is established in the region, is presented. It is also a good example of how an effective earthquake early warning system can reduce potential hazards.
