Scenario of renewable energy transition from fossil energy resources towards net zero emission in Indonesia

Abstract

In 2011, Indonesia set a 26% reduction goal for greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to mitigate the climate change. Based on data from BPS, Indonesia's renewable energy mix in 2021 is 12.16% with a target of 23% in 2025. This indicates that there are challenges faced by Indonesia in many sectors, especially the upstream oil and gas industry as one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, in achieving the energy transition target. In this study, trend analysis and data forecasting were carried out using trend analysis of time series data on oil and gas energy supply and consumption data as baseline to propose scenarios for both consumption and utilization energy to achieve net zero emission (NZE) in 2060. This study found that NZE may be achieved by applying energy consumption scenarios including the use of electric vehicles by 10% in 2030, and 90% in 2060 and the use of electric stoves by 25% in 2030, and 90% in 2060. Renewable energy utilization scenarios include geothermal (50%), hydro (50%), mini hydro (50%), solar (80%), and wind (15%) of the existing potential. In addition, early retirement for coal-fired power plants is needed.