Forecast model for the evaluation of economic resources employed in the health care of patients with HIV infection

Abstract

Paolo Sacchi1, Savino FA Patruno1, Raffaele Bruno1, Serena Maria Benedetta Cima1, Pietro Previtali2, Alessia Franchini2, Luca Nicolini3, Carla Rognoni4, Lucia Sacchi5, Riccardo Bellazzi4, Gaetano Filice11Divisione di Malattie Infettive e Tropicali - Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy; 2Università degli Studi di Pavia – Facoltà di Economia, Pavia, Italy; 3Controllo di Gestione Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo di Pavia, Pavia, Italy; 4Dipartimento di Informatica e Sistemistica, Universita' degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy; 5Department of Information Systems and Computing, Brunel University, London, UKBackground and aims: The total health care cost for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients has constantly grown in recent years. To date, there is no information about how this trend will behave over the next few years. The aim of the present study is to define a pharmacoeconomic model for the forecast of the costs of a group of chronically treated patients followed over the period 2004–2009.Methods: A pharmacoeconomics model was built to describe the probability of transition among different health states and to modify the therapy over time. A Markov model was applied to evaluate the temporal evolution of the average cost. The health care resources exploited during hospitalization were analyzed by using an “activity-based costing” method.Results: The Markov model showed that the mean total cost, after an initial increase, tended to remain stable. A total of 20 clinical records were examined. The average daily cost for each patient was EUR 484.42, with a cost for admission of EUR 6781.88.Conclusion: The treatment of HIV infection in compliance with the guidelines is also effective from the payer perspective, as it allows a good health condition to be maintained and reduces the need and the costs of hospitalizations.Keywords: health care cost, HIV, Markov model, activity-based costing