Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on road traffic accident forecasting in Poland and Slovakia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the performance of the transport sector and its overall intensity. Reducing mobility has a major impact on road traffic accidents. The aim of this study is to forecast the number of road traffic accidents in Poland and Slovakia and to assess how the COVID-19 pandemic affected its trend. For this purpose, data for Poland and Slovakia in the selected relevant period were analyzed. Based on actual data from the past, a forecast was made for the future considering two scenarios – one where there is no effect of pandemic, and another with effect of pandemic. Forecasting the number of accidents in Poland was carried out using selected time series models related to linear trend (Holt and Winters method) and the exponential model. In the case of Slovakia, the model without trend and the exponential model were used to forecast the number of traffic accidents. The results of the research show that the pandemic caused a decrease in the number of traffic accidents in Poland by 31% and in Slovakia by 33%. This is a significant decline, but it is linearly dependent on restrictive measures that affect the mobility of the population. A similar trend can therefore be expected on a European scale.

Keywords

• traffic accident
• pandemic
• forecasting
• exponential smoothing
• brown model
• holt model