Analyzing the Impact of Storm ‘Daniel’ and Subsequent Flooding on Thessaly’s Soil Chemistry through Causal Inference

Abstract

Storm ‘Daniel’ caused the most severe flood phenomenon that Greece has ever experienced, with thousands of hectares of farmland submerged for days. This led to sediment deposition in the inundated areas, which significantly altered the chemical properties of the soil, as revealed by extensive soil sampling and laboratory analysis. The causal relationships between the soil chemical properties and sediment deposition were extracted using the DirectLiNGAM algorithm. The results of the causality analysis showed that the sediment deposition affected the CaCO3 concentration in the soil. Also, causal relationships were identified between CaCO3 and the available phosphorus (P-Olsen), as well as those between the sediment deposit depth and available manganese. The quantified relationships between the soil variables were then used to generate data using a Multiple Linear Perceptron (MLP) regressor for various levels of deposit depth (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 cm). Then, linear regression equations were fitted across the different levels of deposit depth to determine the effect of the deposit depth on CaCO3, P, and Mn. The results revealed quadratic equations for CaCO3, P, and Mn as follows: 0.001XCaCO32 + 0.08XCaCO3 + 6.42, 0.004XP2 − 0.26XP + 12.29, and 0.003XMn2 − 0.08XMn + 22.47, respectively. The statistical analysis indicated that corn growing in soils with a sediment over 10 cm requires a 31.8% increase in the P rate to prevent yield decline. Additional notifications regarding cropping strategies in the near future are also discussed.

Keywords

• causal machine learning
• soil analysis
• causal discovery
• crop fertilization
• flood
• agriculture