DST-Predict: Predicting Individual Mobility Patterns From Mobile Phone GPS Data

Abstract

Predicting spatial behaviors of an individual (e.g., frequent visits to specific locations) is important to improve our understanding of the complexity of human mobility patterns, and to capture anomalous behaviors in an individual’s spatial movements, which can be particularly useful in situations such as those induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a system called Deep Spatio-Temporal Predictor (DST-Predict), that can predict the future visit frequency of an individual based on one’s past mobility behaviour patterns using GPS trace data collected from mobile phones. Predicting such spatial behavior is challenging, primarily because individuals’ patterns of location visits for each individual consists of both systematic and random components, which vary across the spatial and temporal scales of analysis. To address these issues, we propose a novel multi-view sequence-to-sequence model that uses Convolutional Long-short term memory (ConvLSTM) where the past history of frequent visit patterns features is used to predict individuals’ future visit patterns in a multi-step manner. Using the GPS survey data obtained from 1,464 participants in western New York, US, we demonstrated that the proposed system is capable of predicting individuals’ frequency of visits to common places in an urban setting, with high accuracy.

Keywords

• Human mobility
• deep learning
• predictive learning