MODELS AND APPLIED INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR SUPPLY LOGISTICS IN THE CONTEXT OF DEMAND SWINGS

Abstract

The subject matter of the study is the processes of planning supply logistics taking into account swings in demand and prices for products. The goal is to develop models and applied information technology for managing enterprise supplies taking into consideration the unforeseen demand swings. The following tasks were solved: a process model of supply logistics was developed, a model for forecasting demand for products was developed, a model for calculating the optimal volume of orders for various demand options was developed, the structure and modules of the applied information technology for supply logistics management was developed. The following methods were used: structural process models, methods for regression analysis and time series forecasting, inventory management models, STATISTICA software package, object-oriented programming methods. The following results were obtained: the generalized pattern of supply logistics was developed; the supplement of the first block of this pattern with the processes of marketing research of demand for products and planning supply volumes according to the forecasted demand and the probability of a shortage or surplus of products due to unforeseen swings in demand was substantiated; the application of the methods of regression analysis and forecasting of time series to assess the market factors of supply logistics was considered; the model for determining the optimal stock size was studied taking into account storage costs and probable shortages; the architecture of the applied information technology for planning supply logistics was developed; the proposed IT enables analyzing and predicting changes in the main market factors and, in accordance with the results obtained, solving inventory management tasks efficiently. In this case, the deficit and back-ordered demand can be taken into account. The operation of IT modules was illustrated by a test case. Conclusions. The use of IT is efficient in making decisions on logistics planning of business processes, as well as in analyzing the efficiency of logistics for a certain period of time. Further, the specified technology is going to be supplemented with the capabilities of solving inventory logistics problems.

Keywords

• supply logistics
• demand forecasting
• parameter optimization
• time series
• applied information technology