Analysis of factors influencing China’s oil import security based on DEMATEL-ISM

Abstract

In order to promote the strategic planning for the oil import security of China, relevant influencing factors were studied by integrating document coding with the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretative Structural Modeling(DEMATELISM). The current situation and challenges of oil import of China were introduced based on the 4A definition of energy security in terms of supply, transportation and price. Meanwhile, the analytical framework of oil import security was established and coupled with document coding method to define the factors that influence the oil import security of China, thus forming the category of code statistics at different levels. Besides, the interrelation and hierarchical structure of factors were analyzed by DEMATEL-ISM, and suggestions were put forward on the policies. The results show that oil import security is influenced directly by superficial factors, including the production and transportation capacity of oil, and fundamentally by underlying factors, such as the stage of economic development and the structure of energy consumption. In addition, the shallow and deep factors, including the oil policy agreement, the import channel pattern, the import source structure and the construction of emergency system, are the critical points of oil import security. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the above-mentioned factors. Generally, the research results could provide theoretical and methodological support for the oil import of petroleum companies and governments.

Keywords

• oil import security
• influencing factor
• framework
• document coding
• decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(dematel)
• interpretative structure model(ism)