Risk of yellow fever virus importation into the United States from Brazil, outbreak years 2016–2017 and 2017–2018

Abstract

Abstract Southeast Brazil has experienced two large yellow fever (YF) outbreaks since 2016. While the 2016–2017 outbreak mainly affected the states of Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais, the 2017–2018 YF outbreak primarily involved the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, the latter two of which are highly populated and popular destinations for international travelers. This analysis quantifies the risk of YF virus (YFV) infected travelers arriving in the United States via air travel from Brazil, including both incoming Brazilian travelers and returning US travelers. We assumed that US travelers were subject to the same daily risk of YF infection as Brazilian residents. During both YF outbreaks in Southeast Brazil, three international airports—Miami, New York-John F. Kennedy, and Orlando—had the highest risk of receiving a traveler infected with YFV. Most of the risk was observed among incoming Brazilian travelers. Overall, we found low risk of YFV introduction into the United States during the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 outbreaks. Decision makers can use these results to employ the most efficient and least restrictive actions and interventions.